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AGFLATION

Agflation \ag-flay-shun\ , the new kid on the block, as far as economics terminology goes. It is defined as-“the rising cost of food and drinks attributed to higher demand for biofuels made from agricultural products.” Biofuels are plant based liquid fuels like ethanol that could potentially take the place of petroleum. Its proponents see plant power as a way to break the whole worlds dependence on oil and produce auto fuel that is not harmful to the climate and can mitigate the effects of auto pollution on climate change. But biofuels which are distilled from crops like maize, corn & sugar cane are a blind alley, one that drives up food prices without saving the earth. Also, edible oils made from soybeans, mustard and sunflower are being mixed with diesel. Global cultivated land cannot be increased, so crops once devoted to human consumption are being fed into automobiles. This necessarily affects food supply and prices. Different countries have made different commitments to blend these biofuels with petroleum and diesel. While Brazil the world leader in biofluels uses 100% ethanol to run 40% of its cars, US is committed toward 15% , EU 5.75% and India 5%.

In the US, ethanol is made entirely from maize and corn. The area under maize has shot up from 78 million acres in 2006 to 87 million hectares in 2007. Ethanol swallowed a quarter of 2007’s US maize production. Ethanol demand has reduced maize stocks to 25-year lows relative to consumption. No wonder the price of maize has more than doubled in the last 24 months. The ripple effect has been felt on the prices of chicken and pork, which are typically fed on maize.

In late 2006, the price of flour in Mexico, which gets 80 percent of its corn imports from the United States, doubled thanks partly to a rise in U.S. corn prices from $2.80 to $4.20 a bushel over the previous several months. With about half of Mexico's 107 million people living in poverty and relying on flour products as the main source of calories, the public outcry was fierce. In January 2007, Mexico's president, Felipe Calderón, was forced to cap the prices of corn products.

Some economists suggest that cultivable land may be fixed in the short run but can be expanded significantly in the medium run. But guess where would this land come from?
Clearing forests of course. Brazil plans to clear millions of acres of forests to cultivate more sugarcanes and soybeans. Already large sections of the Amazon have been cut down. That too when 20% of world’s carbon emissions come from carbon released into atmosphere via deforestation. So the whole purpose of shifting towards “greener fuels” is defeated. Also these crops, now destined for our cars, are eating into the cultivable land that was previously meant to be cultivated for food, for farmers find it more profitable.

And in our typical fashion the Indian government is following the suite. Why? Well, because the West is doing so! In India, where every inch of land is fought over, it would be unrealistic for the government to expect more than a token shift to ethanol producing crops. So the whole policy falls flat on its face.

The International Food Policy Research Institute, in Washington, D.C., has produced sobering estimates of the potential global impact of the rising demand for biofuels. The rapid increase in global biofuel production will push global corn prices up by 20 percent by 2010 and 41 percent by 2020. The prices of oilseeds, including soybeans, rapeseeds, and sunflower seeds, are projected to rise by 26 percent by 2010 and 76 percent by 2020, and wheat prices by 11 percent by 2010 and 30 percent by 2020. In the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where cassava is a staple, its price is expected to increase by 33 percent by 2010 and 135 percent by 2020. The projected price increases may be mitigated if crop yields increase substantially or ethanol production based on other raw materials (such as trees and grasses) becomes commercially viable. But unless biofuel policies change significantly, neither development is likely.

The production of cassava-based ethanol may pose an especially grave threat to the food security of the world's poor. Cassava, a tropical potato-like tuber also known as manioc, provides one-third of the caloric needs of the population in sub-Saharan Africa and is the primary staple for over 200 million of Africa's poorest people. In many tropical countries, it is the food people turn to when they cannot afford anything else. It also serves as an important reserve when other crops fail because it can grow in poor soils and dry conditions and can be left in the ground to be harvested as needed.

European Union has mandated that biofuels should account for 5.75% of transport fuel by 2010. In Europe though, good sense seems to be prevailing with a large section of EU MPs now airing doubts over the benefits of ethanol and seem convinced that going forward with ethanol would only produce counterproductive effects in the fight against global warming.

In Indonesia forests are fast disappearing ironically against a fast growing alternative-energy business. Palm oil is used for cooking and as a food additive. Growing it has long been a big business in South East Asia. But it can also be used in the production of a relatively ‘clean-burning’ alternative fuel: biodiesel. As oil prices have soared in recent years, Indonesian companies have been converting vast tracts of forests into palm-oil plantation to feed automobiles. Between 1995 and 2005 land under palm-oil plantations

has increased by 8.6 million acres (more than double). The biodiesel boom has high environment cost. Tropical forests help remove millions of tones of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year. Burning and clear-cutting not only eliminates one of the
planet’s crucial air-filtration systems, the process also releases even more carbon dioxide into the air, in smoke or as gases released during the decomposition of forest waste.

Fidel Castro describes the biofuel industry as a "colossal squandering of cereals destined to fuel production" which undermines the broad objective of combating poverty and famine in the developing World.

The world's poorest people already spend 50 to 80 percent of their total household income on food. For the many among them who are landless laborers or rural subsistence farmers, large increases in the prices of staple foods will mean malnutrition and hunger. Some of them will tumble over the edge of subsistence into outright starvation, and many more will die from a multitude of hunger-related diseases.
The future can be brighter if the right steps are taken now. Limiting our dependence on fossil fuels requires a comprehensive energy-conservation program. Rather than promoting more mandates, tax breaks, and subsidies for biofuels, the government should make a major commitment to substantially increasing energy efficiency in vehicles, homes, and factories; promoting alternative sources of energy, such as solar and wind power; and investing in research to improve agricultural productivity and raise the efficiency of fuels derived from cellulose. World’s fixation on food-based biofuel has distorted the global agenda and diverted its attention from developing a broad and balanced strategy.

ANKIT MITTAL